The Mecca Pact and America’s Reduced Leverage in West Asia

The signing of the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Türkiye on August 7 is a significant development. The pact is the first formal regional security agreement to be formed as a direct result of the conflict between the U.S. and Iran. The agreement reflects the lessons that key regional actors have drawn from the crisis as they seek to redefine their place within a security order long dominated by the U.S.

The West Asia war has revealed that the American defense umbrella in the form of forward bases in the region is not adequate in protecting Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf Arab states from Iranian attacks. Rather, the U.S. military presence in these states pulled them directly into the conflict, making them targets of Iran and its regional allies. Additionally, the Israeli military’s approach to the Palestinian question and its bombing of the people of Gaza have drawn widespread ire in the Muslim world.

For decades, Washington served as the sole security guarantor in the Gulf. The emergence of a formal defense pact among key regional players that excludes the U.S. is may chip away at Washington’s leverage in the region. While this erosion of influence may not become fully apparent in the short term, it is likely to assume greater significance in the coming years, particularly with respect to arms sales, the negotiation of military basing rights, and the management of regional crises.

One may argue that as a result of the pact the U.S. will now be indirectly constrained by decisions taken jointly by Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan. For instance, the Mecca Pact stipulates that an attack on one country will be regarded as an attack upon all. While the signatories have not publicly elaborated the precise circumstances under which the idea of collective commitment would be activated, it is reasonable to conclude that they have reached internal understandings regarding the scenarios that would trigger such a response.

It does seem that Washington sees little issue with the Mecca Agreement. American officials have refrained from opposing the agreement, with analysts noting that it aligns with Washington’s interests for regional burden-sharing. In practice, however, the U.S. holds no formal obligations under the pact. However, its deep military ties with Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, and Pakistan mean Washington cannot easily disentangle itself should a crisis erupt amid ambiguity surrounding the pact’s scope.

It is important to note that this pact has taken shape among countries bound by deep historical, religious and defense ties, whose interests have converged amid the shifting geopolitical landscape of West Asia during the Iran-U.S. war. Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye have long maintained strong military cooperation. Last year, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan concluded a bilateral Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement. Similarly, Türkiye and Pakistan have been collaborating on naval projects, fighter jet development and joint exercises.

Furthermore, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye have established strong defense ties in recent years. A major turning point in this regard occurred in 2023 when Saudi Arabia signed a massive defense contract to acquire Bayraktar Akinci unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) from Türkiye’s Baykar. The deal included agreements between Saudi Military Industries and Baykar for technology transfer, local assembly, testing and joint production inside the Kingdom. In a way, this directly aligned with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 objective to localize more than 50 percent of its military spending. This existing Saudi, Turkish, and Pakistani defense industry collaboration made it only natural to form a defensive alliance that is expected to foster deeper military integration in the years ahead.

Arguably, Washington has been compelled to accept the arrangement due to the transformation of regional realities where it cannot fully ensure conflict resolution. The agreement could not realistically have materialized prior to the Iran–U.S. conflict that started last year. Still, from the American perspective, there is relative advantage in permitting a pact among three states that already possess established linkages with the U.S., rather than allowing unpredictable security vacuums to be filled by non-aligned actors such as Iran.

This does not, however, suggest that the pact is directed against Iran.

Early diplomatic exchanges suggest that Iran has, if anything, been kept informed about this arrangement. A particularly symbolic illustration in this regard is the telephone conversation between Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi following the signing of the Mecca Pact.

According to the Pakistani Foreign Office statement, Dar “shared the contours of the recently signed Makkah Joint Defense Agreement between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye, underscoring its objectives of strengthening strategic cooperation and contributing to regional peace and security.” On his part, Araghchi expressed appreciation for the briefing. In the same exchange, the Iranian foreign minister conveyed the latest status of bilateral talks with Oman concerning a suitable route for the safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

Separately, the spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry characterized the Mecca Agreement as a “sign of a changing perception among regional states,” observing that the signatories have come to recognize that security cannot be secured through reliance on foreign powers. Iran has seemingly welcomed the agreement both as validation of its own long-standing view of regional security and as a potential foundation for a broader collective security framework.

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman emphasized that “regional security is indivisible.” Any initiative that correctly identifies the principal threat could contribute to the strengthening of security across West Asia, he said. In this reading, Tehran appears to regard the Mecca agreement as arguably correctly identifying, or something closer to the Iranian view regarding the prevailing threat environment and as trying to establish a longer-term structure to address it.

If the telephone exchange between the Pakistani and Iranian foreign ministers and the Iranian Foreign Ministry’s statement are indicative, they point toward an emerging regional security and diplomatic architecture in West Asia, the outlines of which have been sketched by the Mecca Agreement and within which Iran is likely to play a future role.

Significantly, Saudi Arabia has already moved to address contentious questions surrounding the pact. The Saudi Gazette quoted Saudi Deputy Minister for Public Diplomacy, Amb. Dr. Rayed Krimly, who clarified that the agreement “is not intended to establish a military axis or sectarian bloc and is not linked to nuclear ambitions or an arms race.”

Krimly further emphasized that the accord “does not threaten the security of any country in the region and should not be viewed as an escalation of tensions between any two states.”

In a nutshell, the Mecca agreement suggests that Pakistan’s diplomatic role in bridging divides and facilitating communication across the Persian Gulf will expand under this new framework. Moreover, the three signatories are expected to assume greater responsibility for resolving differences among themselves through diplomatic means. Over time, the framework may evolve to encompass additional regional participants, including Iran, other Gulf states and elsewhere.

It remains to be seen under what precise circumstances the agreement might be formally invoked.

Nevertheless, the Mecca Pact represents a significant structural shift in which regional countries such as Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Türkiye are seeking to increase their strategic autonomy. This, in the long run, could help diminish the monopoly the Americans long exercised over West Asia’s regional security dynamics and their core interests.