What to watch in Wisconsin’s high-stakes primary

A week after progressives scored a victory in Michigan’s US Senate primary, Democrats face another test, this time in the Upper Midwestern US state of Wisconsin.

Voters in the battleground state head to the polls on Tuesday in a primary that will help shape races for governor and all eight US House of Representatives seats in November, as well as the Wisconsin State Assembly and half of the State Senate.

But the biggest spotlight is on the Democratic contest for governor, which has become another proxy battle between the party’s progressive wing and its more moderate establishment.

The results will not only shape Wisconsin politics, but also could offer clues about where Democratic voters want the party to go ahead of November’s United States midterm elections.

Why is Wisconsin’s Democratic primary for governor so important?

Wisconsin is the next major test after progressive Abdul El-Sayed narrowly defeated establishment-backed US Representative Haley Stevens in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary on Tuesday, renewing questions about whether Democratic voters are moving further left.

This year’s primaries have repeatedly seen outsider candidates outperform establishment favourites, reflecting frustration among many Democratic voters after the party’s losses in the 2024 presidential election and an internal debate happening over US support for Israel. While progressive candidates have won against establishment ones in heavily Democratic states like New York or Colorado, there have been questions about whether more leftist candidates can succeed in US states, like Michigan or Wisconsin, where both Democratic and Republican candidates can have a similar level of support. US President Donald Trump won both Michigan and Wisconsin in the 2024 US presidential election after former US President Joe Biden won them in 2020.

Wisconsin will be closely watched for whether the trend of progressive wins continues.

Whoever wins will likely face Republican Representative Tom Tiffany, a Trump ally who has already been framing the race as a choice between what he calls a “socialist agenda” and “common sense”.

Who are Francesca Hong and David Crowley?

The Democratic race for the gubernatorial nominee in Wisconsin has narrowed to two very different candidates.

State Representative Francesca Hong is a lawmaker, former restaurant worker and democratic socialist who, if elected, would become Wisconsin’s first woman governor and first Asian American governor.

Hong’s campaign has focused on issues like free childcare, cancelling student debt, and abolishing US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). She’s also faced scrutiny over past social media posts, including ones supporting Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) policies such as abolishing the US Senate and abolishing or defunding police. She’s since distanced herself from some of those positions, saying she doesn’t support the national DSA’s full platform and has pledged not to cut police budgets. Hong has emphasised that she’s a member of the local DSA chapter in Madison, Wisconsin, but not a national member.

Hong, who has been endorsed by Minnesota Democratic US Representative Ilhan Omar and has campaigned alongside left-wing commentator Hasan Piker, has also described Israel’s actions in Gaza as genocide, advocated for Palestinian rights and called for repealing a Wisconsin law that bars state agencies from contracting with companies that boycott Israel.

Her main opponent, David Crowley, is the Milwaukee County executive, the chief public official for the county, who initially dropped out of the race and re-entered 10 days later, in mid-July, after being endorsed by outgoing Governor Tony Evers. The endorsement quickly cemented Crowley as the establishment favourite, with supporters arguing he’s the strongest candidate to keep the governor’s office in Democratic hands.

Crowley, however, has insisted he isn’t an establishment democrat and that he considers the term a “slur”. He is also hoping to make history as Wisconsin’s first Black governor and said he intends to focus on undecided voters.

A Marquette University Law School poll of Wisconsin Democratic primary voters conducted in late July showed Hong with a significant lead in the race.

Why has the governor’s primary been so chaotic?

Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez was the first major Democrat to drop out after a campaign finance controversy. Former Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation CEO Missy Hughes later ended her campaign, further narrowing the field.

Then, less than two weeks before election day, former Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes withdrew after allegations of inappropriate behaviour resurfaced during the campaign. Barnes denied any wrongdoing, and a review commissioned by the Wisconsin Democratic Party found no actionable evidence because the allegations were anonymous and lacked specific details, according to the Associated Press.

Crowley then re-entered the race, following the endorsement of outgoing Governor Evers.

Because all of the withdrawals came after Wisconsin’s filing deadline, the candidates remain on the ballot. Almost 128,000 absentee ballots have already been returned, meaning many voters had cast ballots for candidates who were no longer actively campaigning. A judge later rejected a lawsuit that was seeking to have the absentee ballots cancelled and allow voters to vote again.

What are other races to watch?

In western Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District, Democrats are choosing between Rebecca Cooke – a nonprofit executive and the party’s 2024 nominee, who came within about three percentage points of defeating Republican Representative Derrick Van Orden – and Emily Berge, the former president of the Eau Claire City Council. The winner will face Van Orden in November in one of the country’s most competitive House races, and one Democrats see as one of their best opportunities to flip a Republican-held seat.

An additional race to watch is in the state’s 7th Congressional District. The race has largely centred on Michael Alfonso, the 26-year-old son-in-law of US Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, who has Trump’s endorsement. He faces several competitors, including Jessi Ebben, a manufacturing strategist and grassroots Trump organiser who has campaigned on border security, expanding American manufacturing and protecting gun rights, and Kevin Hermening, a former US Marine who was one of 66 Americans held hostage by Iran for 444 days starting in 1979.

The district is expected to remain safely Republican, meaning the primary winner will be heavily favoured in November. Democrats are also choosing between Chris Armstrong, former state Representative Fred Clark and Ginger Murray for their party’s nomination.

When do polls open and close?

Polls are open from 7am to 8pm local time (12:00-01:00 GMT on Tuesday-Wednesday).